Brandon Roy, G, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 1 [LP: 1 | YTD: 3]
[28.7mpg, 11.9ppg, 3.9reb, 3.9ast, 0.14stl, 0.43blk, 0-3ptm, 42%fg, 89.3%ft, 1.43 to]

Roy came back from injury to play 2 games since the last edition of the DD, and Nate wanted to bring him back slowly - bringing him off the bench for both games. However 41 minutes and a near triple-double vs. Toronto makes me think he is back and ready to play. He is definitely an important piece to this Portland team and a great all-around contributor. He is back to make his case for ROY and Fantasy ROY.

Jorge Garbajosa, FC, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 2 [LP: 3 | YTD: 1]
[29mpg, 8.9ppg, 5.6reb, 1.9ast, 1.15stl, 0.35blk, 0.54-3ptm, 43.2%fg, 75%ft, 0.96to]

We have now passed a full month with Jorge being the best fantasy rookie. Suffice to say that no one expected that. The real testing point will be when Chris Bosh comes back from injury. With both Jorge and Bargnani seeing increased playing time, who will take the biggest hit? Will it be both? Will it be Rasho, even though he has anchored the defence? Remember that prior to Bosh’s injury, Garbo was starting at SF and C, so I think his minutes will be safe around the 30 mark. And here is an interesting thought – Garbo and Bargnani as co-ROY? Is it possible? Speak your mind here: http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=604268.

Andrea Bargnani, F, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 3 [LP: 4 | YTD: 6]
[20.9mpg, 9.8ppg, 3.5reb, 0.5ast, 0.23stl, 0.81blk, 0.85-3ptm, 41.6%fg, 81.4%ft, 1.23to]

Andrea has had an off game every now and then like any rookie, but there is no denying that as each game passes he looks more and more deserving of a #1 pick. His MPG is up 3 from the last edition and his stats are up across the board. The good positive is his rebounding and blocks are up (including a 10 rebound-6 block performance vs. Golden State on the 17th). As mentioned with Garbo, Bosh may be back as soon as this weekend and it will be interesting to see how this affects Bargnani’s playing time. But as the season progresses, and as Andrea progresses, I wouldn’t be surprised if he continued to move up these rankings.

Rudy Gay, GF, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected: 4 [LP: 2 | YTD: 10]
[23.5mpg, 9.0ppg, 3.9reb, 0.7ast, 1.0stl, 0.86blk, 0.32-3ptm, 38.9%fg, 65.1%ft, 1.43to]

The good news? Rudy has modestly improved his percentages. The bad news? His playing time has been cut. With Pau Gasol and Damon Stoudamire back, and Hakim Warrick and sometimes Dahntay Jones ahead of him on the depth chart, Rudy is seeing the court less and less each game. Therefore it’s no surprise that his numbers are down also. We have seen his potential to fill up a box score in Kirilenko-like fashion. But he is still a rookie, and Mike Fratello looks to play the more proven players to try and coax a win or two to save his job. More bad news? Likely to see another dip in playing time when Lawrence Roberts comes back.

LaMarcus Aldridge, FC, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 5 [LP: 5 | YTD: 4]
[19.1mpg, 6.7ppg, 4.2reb, 0.4ast, 0.3stl, 0.85blk, 0-3ptm, 50.5%fg, 79.3%ft, 0.55 to]

Yes, his playing time is down 3 minutes since the last edition, but we have to remember this is a season-long projection. And since the world is projecting a trade of Jamal Magloire at any given moment, LA should find at least 20 minutes a night for the duration of the season. He has shown what he is capable of: high percentage shots, rebounds, and blocks. When you are looking for a big man to play beside Zach Randolph, that is exactly what you need. Also a good compliment to Joel Przybilla, so that is a nice 3 man rotation if Nate chooses to go that way (or when Raef’s knees give out again).

Paul Millsap, F, Utah Jazz
Projected: 6 [LP: 7 | YTD: 5]
[15.5mpg, 6.3ppg, 4.3reb, 0.6ast, 0.61stl, 0.81blk, 0-3ptm, 55.6%fg, 70.1%ft, 1.0to]

Millsap’s minutes have dropped 1 per game since the last edition and the Jazz are still winning. We know Sloan doesn’t like rookies but it’s no secret that Millsap has been a key to their success. I still expect him to top 15 minutes every night, and with an injury prone frontcourt (Kirilenko, Boozer, Harpring), he could see a jump to 25+ in the blink of an eye. Even in his decreased minutes, he has maintained his effectiveness, and his jump in the rankings coincides with the fall of the next guy.

Adam Morrison, GF, Charlotte Bobcats
Projected: 7 [LP: 6 | YTD: 13]
[33mpg, 13.1ppg, 2.9reb, 2.0ast, 0.42stl, 0.12blk, 1.3-3ptm, 36.7%fg, 70.6%ft, 1.88to]

Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to introduce you to RFk’s new whipping boy. It’s sad when you can say your team is better with Matt Carroll on the court as opposed to you, but Ammo has that claim to fame right now. Bickerstaff seems to want to make him “The Man” but he simply isn’t. He continues to struggle getting the shots he wants over more athletic defenders, and continues to look confused when the crowd is chanting “D-Fence”. In the hockey world, he would be called a “pylon”. But let’s look at the positive: he will continue to jack up shot after shot, which will help you in points and 3 pointers, with the very occasional contribution of a rebound and an assist here and there.

Jordan Farmar, G, LA Lakers
Projected: 8 [LP: 9 | YTD: 7]
[18.2mpg, 6.2ppg, 1.7reb, 2.6ast, 0.64stl, 0.08blk, 0.92-3ptm, 48.8%fg, 63.6%ft, 1.08to]

Farmar’s minutes have stayed exactly the same, and there hasn’t been much change in his production either. A miniscule increase in assists and 3 pointers made offset by a very little gain in turnovers and loss in steals. Farmar could be right behind Roy and Millsap as the most consistent rookie to date. He has played his role very well this season and no doubt has starter capabilities for the future. And looking back at the very early editions of the Dirty Dozen, was I that crazy to think about putting him ahead of Morrison? Doesn’t look that far fetched at the moment.

Shelden Williams, F, Atlanta Hawks
Projected: 9 [LP: 11 | YTD: 8]
[20.5mpg, 6.0ppg, 5.8reb, 0.4ast, 0.69stl, 0.73blk, 0.04-3ptm, 43.9%fg, 83.3%ft, 1.54to]

I wasn’t thinking of moving Shelden up for this edition until another unfortunate injury for the Hawks. Josh Smith is the latest casualty, undergoing surgery to remove a sports hernia. Thus, Shelden is likely to find his way back to the starting lineup and pushing Marvin Williams to the 3-spot. Add in the fact that the guys below him aren’t getting enough steady minutes to be fantasy contributors and it’s easily justifiable to move Shelden up 2 spots for this edition. He is a great asset on the boards and defensive stats, but his offensive game is very limited due to a low field goal percentage. The Hawks should coax him into just getting fouled every time he touches it where he shoots a high percentage.

Craig Smith, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 10 [LP: 8 | YTD: 9]
[18.1mpg, 7.6ppg, 5.1reb, 0.7ast, 0.79stl, 0.17blk, 0-3ptm, 53.6%fg, 63%ft, 1.04to]

I would gladly tell you why Craig Smith’s playing time keeps decreasing, if only I knew the answer. We all know what he can do, but Minnesota is hovering around .500 long enough that Coach Casey doesn’t feel any pressure to make any changes to his rotation. Its unfortunate, as Smith had the potential to be a very good fantasy story this year. The positive is, in a deep Western Conference, Minny is likely to be out of the playoff hunt by late February and Smith could then see increased minutes. That, or when KG gets traded (did I just say that?).

Randy Foye, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 11 [LP: 10 | YTD: 14]
[15.8mpg, 6.8ppg, 1.7reb, 1.7ast, 0.75stl, 0.29blk, 0.25-3ptm, 43.7%fg, 82.1%ft, 1.54to]

Casey is teasing us with another rookie, as Foye is up a minute per game and his scoring is up as well. That can also be attributed to his nice rise in shooting percentages. Increased playing time could be a month or two away though as Minny is keeping themselves competitive enough to warrant playing veterans over youth. Once they are out of the playoff picture though, look for Foye’s leash to be removed.

Marcus Williams, G, New Jersey Nets
Projected: 12 [LP: 12 | YTD: 18]
[17.1mpg, 6.9ppg, 1.9reb, 2.8ast, 0.44stl, 0.04blk, 0.59-3ptm, 39.3%fg, 91.3%ft, 1.67to]

Will someone else please step up and take the 12th spot? I can’t really say that Marcus deserves it, but no one else is taking it away from him. The truth is, Marcus easily has the best potential out of the rest of the group and shown the most flashes. His playing time took a bit of a dip, but now with Krstic out for the season and Lawrence Frank tinkering with a small lineup (starting the also-ailing Richard Jefferson at PF), Marcus might see more minutes. However the most sure way for Marcus to get more court time is to stop turning the ball over and quit jacking up poor percentage shots.


:::: Happy Holidays everyone!

_________________

Projected: Complete projection of the 2006-2007 NBA season
[YTD]: Current rookie ranking based on year-to-date stats
[LP]: The projection in the previous week's 'Dirty Dozen'

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Nick Obergan is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. He publishes 'The Dirty Dozen' bi-weekly. If you'd like to comment on the article, please chime in on the boards.