Brandon Roy, G, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 1 [LP: 2 | YTD: 6]
[27.2mpg, 11.6ppg, 2.8reb, 3.4ast, 0.2stl, 0.4blk, 0-3ptm, 37.7%fg, 85.7%ft, 1.0 to]

Here based on the potential of what he could/will do when he returns from injury (which is slotted at around 1-2 more weeks). No other rookie has asserted himself as a fantasy stud in Roy’s absence.

Rudy Gay, F, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected: 2 [LP: 1 | YTD: 9]
[24.9mpg, 9.1ppg, 4.7reb, 0.7ast, 1.05stl, 0.85blk, 0.4-3ptm, 37.6%fg, 59.6%ft, 1.4to]

Rudy has found his way back to the bench, and Pau Gasol isn’t even back yet (but he is practicing). He acknowledged his sub-par play in a recent quote from NBA.com’s Rookie Report saying “Right now I’m just blending in.” At least he knows it, now will he fix it? No doubt he has shown flashes, but is it more than just a flash in a pan? His YTD mark is neutral thanks to a small climb in FG%, however his FT% is still suffering. His defensive stats are still decent, having flip flopped since last rankings.

Jorge Garbajosa, FC, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 3 [LP: 3 | YTD: 1]
[27.5mpg, 8.7ppg, 5.2reb, 1.6ast, 1.16stl, 0.26blk, 0.63-3ptm, 44.1%fg, 70.4%ft, 1.0to]

The Spaniard is third in the rankings for consecutive editions. Garbo continues to start, whether at the C or SF. His solid defence is keeping him on the floor, as he is still swiping steals all over the place. He knows where to be, and can guard bigs or wings. Aside from his shooting, he has a very nice 9-cat line. His shot is better inside the 3pt line, but that hasn’t stopped him from firing at will. As his 3PTM climbs, his FG% is likely to decline so be weary of that. That said, his percentages are up across the board the last 2 weeks.

Andrea Bargnani, F, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 4 [LP: 8 | YTD: 10]
[18mpg, 8.1ppg, 2.7reb, 0.5ast, 0.26stl, 0.63blk, 0.63-3ptm, 42.3%fg, 79.4%ft, 0.89to]

It’s not rocket science: the more Bargnani plays, the better the Raptors are. Displaying a nice passing touch recently in addition to his deadly outside shot, the only knock on him right now is his rebounding. For a 7-footer he isn’t hitting the boards nearly as often as the Raptors and fantasy owners alike need him to. He missed a game recently to a sore lower back, which I know first hand likes to linger as long as possible. Hopefully he can shake it off and continue the pace of 23+ min per contest since Game #10.

LaMarcus Aldridge, FC, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 5 [LP: 5 | YTD: 2]
[22.4mpg, 7.7ppg, 5.1reb, 0.4ast, 0.38stl, 0.94blk, 0-3ptm, 50.5%fg, 78.6%ft, 0.44 to]

Even though Aldridge’s only start these past 2 weeks was due to Randolph’s suspension, his playing time has stayed the same and his production has not dropped off noticeably. He could very well be higher, but the Blazers are so deep in the frontcourt that when everyone is healthy, it’s hard to determine how many minutes he will receive. Front office is shopping Magloire everywhere though, so once that trade happens it could very well open up a hole for LA.

Adam Morrison, F, Charlotte Bobcats
Projected: 6 [LP: 4 | YTD: 13]
[34.6mpg, 13.2ppg, 2.8reb, 2.0ast, 0.5stl, 0.15blk, 1.35-3ptm, 36.5%fg, 68.4%ft, 1.95to]

Ammo’s FG% is on a very very steep decline. Over the course of his last 4 games he went a combined 4-for-34 from the field, including 1-for-8 from downtown and only attempted 2 free throws. Note to the rook: when you’re in a slump, get to the charity stripe for easy ones. His PPG is down 2 since the last edition and the rest of his game has stayed stationary. And stationary isn’t good, because he doesn’t really contribute much else.

Paul Millsap, F, Utah Jazz
Projected: 7 [LP: 7 | YTD: 3]
[16.5mpg, 7.4ppg, 4.9reb, 0.6ast, 0.55stl, 0.85blk, 0-3ptm, 58.7%fg, 72.7%ft, 1.0to]

His minutes are staying the same and the Jazz keep winning. And yes, despite that great starting 5, Millsap has a lot to do with that winning. Very effective in the minutes he plays, he is definitely a Sloan type player: hard-nosed and plays at one energy level. His numbers are down just a smidgeon, but he finds himself this far down on the DD because the other guys have much greater potential for heavy minutes.

Craig Smith, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 8 [LP: 9 | YTD: 5]
[18.7mpg, 7.9ppg, 5.1reb, 0.6ast, 0.95stl, 0.16blk, 0-3ptm, 55.3%fg, 68.6%ft, 1.05to]

Trust me, I am the last person in the world who wants to admit they agree with John Hollinger on anything, but he had a great point in his recent first quarter rookie report card: Why do they not start this guy over Mark Blount? Size? Who cares! The NBA is going smaller and the Wolves should too. Smith has been a model of consistency all season long and is nothing but productive when he is on the floor. Smith is a very good rebounder and is shooting an outstanding percentage from the field. He does all of the little things that matter.

Jordan Farmar, G, Los Angeles Lakers
Projected: 9 [LP: 11 | YTD: 7]
[18.2mpg, 6.4ppg, 1.8reb, 2.5ast, 0.72stl, 0.11blk, 0.89-3ptm, 48.4%fg, 63.6%ft, 1.06to]

With the Lakers Kobe-less last week Farmar stepped up big time for a career high 15 points to go along with 2 reb, 4 ast and 3 steals vs Atlanta. The more playing time he gets, the more he shows you. I still believe he should be starting over Smush Parker, however getting the important minutes down the stretch is a nice thing too.

Randy Foye, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 10 [LP: 10 | YTD: 16]
[14.9mpg, 5.9ppg, 1.7reb, 1.6ast, 0.89stl, 0.21blk, 0.26-3ptm, 39.0%fg, 80.6%ft, 1.47to]

Foye’s minutes are up a couple per game, and we hope this is a continuing trend. The kid is a player and has definitely not been able to showcase his skills like he did in Summer League. If the Wolves slide well out of the playoff picture, Foye will likely get a lot more minutes to prepare himself for next season, and to show management and the coaching staff just what he is capable of doing when given enough burn.

Shelden Williams, F, Atlanta Hawks
Projected: 11 [LP: 6 | YTD: 8]
[21.7mpg, 6.1ppg, 5.9reb, 0.5ast, 0.74stl, 0.75blk, 0.05-3ptm, 44%fg, 81.8%ft, 1.79to]

Up and down in the rankings to go along with an up and down season so far. There is no denying his ability to rebound the ball, but he has shown very little offence at all this year and his opportunities may be slowly dwindling. Marvin Williams has returned from injury and in a week or so they hope to have Childress back. When the Hawks are at full strength, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shelden’s minutes dip to around 12 per game.

Marcus Williams, G, New Jersey Nets
Projected: 12 [LP: 12 | YTD: 18]
[18.6mpg, 7.5ppg, 2.2reb, 3.0ast, 0.16stl, 0.05blk, 0.42-3ptm, 40.4%fg, 90.9%ft, 1.74to]

Everyone was excited by the way Marcus played in Summer League and preseason - that was mostly because his assist numbers were very high. Now, his assist numbers are much lower than they should be given that he is playing with Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson. He is looking for his own shot too much which is why his turnovers have increased. He is a good player that is not playing to his strengths.

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RANDOM NOTES

:::: Michael Sweetney and Malik Allen are ahead of Tyrus Thomas on the Bulls front court depth chart; not a good sign for your rookie season
:::: Ronnie Brewer has started over half of the Jazz’s games, but only averages just over 13 minutes
:::: Rajon Rondo finally sank his first three-pointer last week.
:::: Dee Brown has played 19, 16 and 10 minutes his last 3 games; something to keep an eye on.
:::: Daniel Gibson has averaged 10pts, 4reb, 1.25ast, 0.5stl , 2.25-3ptm, 48% shooting in his last 4 games, 2 of which he started. Will he fight his way into a spot for the next edition?

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Projected: Complete projection of the 2006-2007 NBA season
[YTD]: Current rookie ranking based on year-to-date stats
[LP]: The projection in the previous week's 'Dirty Dozen'

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Nick Obergan is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. He publishes 'The Dirty Dozen' bi-weekly. If you'd like to comment on the article, please chime in on the boards.