Rudy Gay, F, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected: 1 [LP: 2 | YTD: 1]
[24mpg, 9.8ppg, 5.0reb, 0ast, 0.5stl, 1.5blk, 0.8-3ptm, 36.1%fg, 90.9%ft, 1.17to]

Though Rudy isn’t starting, he is providing an exceptional punch off the bench. Even not starting, I expect he averages around 23-25 minutes per contest, which is only a shade under his preseason average. His scoring is up from preseason, as is his rebounding. Though his assists are down (to zero in fact), as well as steals, we are happy to report his turnovers are way down as well! Sure wouldn’t mind a bump in the field goal percentage though.

Brandon Roy, G, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 2 [LP: 1 | YTD: 3]
[27.2mpg, 11.6ppg, 2.8reb, 3.4ast, 0.2stl, 0.4blk, 0-3ptm, 37.7%fg, 85.7%ft, 1.0 to]

One of two rookies who have started every game they have played. Roy carried his stellar preseason over into the regular season, cutting down his turnovers, which has fantasy owners giddy with delight. However his field goal percentage is down considerably and he recently missed a game with injury that even has coach McMillan worried. It’s possible this could linger around for awhile and he might have to play through it which could cause his minutes to drop and his stats to decline. His stats are also affected by starting on Friday and only playing 7 minutes. He’s missed 2 of the last 3 games.

Randy Foye, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 3 [LP: 8 | YTD: 5]
[12.7mpg, 5.5ppg, 1.0reb, 1.3ast, 1.33stl, 0blk, 0.17-3ptm, 34.5%fg, 92.3%ft, 0.67to]

Foye was thought to be a top challenger for Rookie of the Year after his Summer League play. However with Dwayne Casey’s job rumored to be on thin ice, he is playing the more proven players in Hassell, Jaric, and a rejuvenated Troy Hudson. Foye is trying to make the best out of his situation by limiting his turnovers and increasing his steals and assists from his preseason numbers. He is still one of the more talented rookies and his opportunity should come this year to showcase his many skills. His value has been boosted due to 2 games in a row of over 20 minutes, though.

Jordan Farmar, G, Los Angeles Lakers
Projected: 4 [LP: 12 | YTD: 9]
[17.7mpg, 5.0ppg, 1.4reb, 2.3ast, 0.25stl, 0.13blk, 0.375-3ptm, 40%fg, 83.3%ft, 1.13to]

I’m throwing a wild card up here for a couple of reasons. 1 - A handful of players I projected high in the last edition of the DD have stunk up the joint to start the season. 2 – a handful of players aren’t getting enough minutes to justify any fantasy consideration. 3 – Bill Simmons predicts the starting PG job is Farmar’s by Christmas (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/part1/061101), and it really isn’t that far fetched of an idea. Smush isn’t exactly setting the league on fire with his 8/2/3 averages and Farmar has been very steady off the bench.

Adam Morrison, F, Charlotte Bobcats
Projected: 5 [LP: nr | YTD: 4]
[30.5mpg, 11.8ppg, 1.8reb, 1.3ast, 1.0stl, 0.33blk, 1.5-3ptm, 32.4%fg, 76.2%ft, 2.17to]

Just as I suspected, Ammo read my column and wanted me to eat crow. I figured he would eventually get his stroke back – however that hasn’t happened. What I didn’t envision was him contributing in blocks and steals, which has really boosted his stock even though they are modest improvements. Also boosting his stock – the decline of every other rookie behind him. He will start with Felton injured, however I don’t expect much of a stat-increase as he was already playing 33 minutes a night off the bench.

Jorge Garbajosa, F, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 6 [LP: 6 | YTD: 6]
[24.4mpg, 8.5ppg, 3.5reb, 0.9ast, 0.8stl, 0.1blk, 1.75-3ptm, 37.7%fg, 83.3%ft, 1.5to]

Jorge is being trusted with some quality minutes in the Toronto lineup, playing a lot of backup center alongside Chris Bosh. Though his career field goal percentage was always a concern, he shouldn’t be shooting as low as he is now, and is losing playing time because of it. However, with the Raptors preaching “shoot often”, Jorge will keep firing threes so they are bound to fall every now and then. Unless one of your stats is 3pt% you should be fine with that. Modest rebound and assist numbers complete with miniscule turnovers make him an admirable fantasy player.

Rajon Rondo, G, Boston Celtics
Projected: 7 [LP: 3 | YTD: 12]
[21.4mpg, 6.2ppg, 3.2reb, 2.8ast, 0.6stl, 0blk, 0-3ptm, 44.4%fg, 53.8%ft, 1.8to]

Here is where the rankings get difficult, but this is why I get paid the big bucks (haha!). Delonte West is a bit injury prone and has been told he is not a point guard. Telfair, to me, is still unproven, especially defensively. Rondo is an excellent defender and is sure to steal away minutes when the game is on the line. HOWEVER, this is exactly what isn’t happening. Delonte is now seeing a lot of time at the point and Rondo is coming off his first DNP-CD. So why is Rondo still in the rankings, and this high? I am sure whoever replaces Doc Rivers in a month or so will play Rondo more and Tony Allen & Brian Scalabrine less. To me, he still has a legitimate chance at winning the starting point guard job by season’s end.

Thabo Sefolosha, G, Chicago Bulls
Projected: 8 [LP: nr | YTD: 2]
[16.7mpg, 6.8ppg, 2.5reb, 1.8ast, 1.0stl, 0.17blk, 0.5-3ptm, 45.7%fg, 75%ft, 0.67to]

Thabo came out of the gates flying after a subpar preseason in fantasy world. He obliterated his turnovers, and his percentages skyrocketed. He contributes nicely in every category, his weaknesses being 3s and blocks. Blocks aren’t really a concern since he is a guard, but usually you would like to see some 3s out of your guards. He only hit 1 in preseason and hopefully he can build on his couple early ones in the regular season. With Gordon struggling offensively, Thabo could find more minutes than most expect.

Shelden Williams, F, Atlanta Hawks
Projected: 9 [LP: 11 | YTD: 7]
[18.7mpg, 3.7ppg, 5.3reb, 0.2ast, 0.5stl, 0.67blk, 0-3ptm, 47.6%fg, 100%ft, 1.83to]

The only rookie not named Roy to start every game so far. That said, he still isn’t seeing a lot of floor time with Josh Childress playing excellent off the bench, thus shifting Josh Smith to the 4 more often. Shelden didn’t help himself by missing every shot in his first 3 games, but his offence is coming around and his rebounding has been very nice thus far. His turnovers are very high for someone who doesn’t see a lot of the ball on offence and with his amount of playing time.

Marcus Williams, G, New Jersey Nets
Projected: 10 [LP: 7 | YTD: 16]
[19.8mpg, 7.4ppg, 3.0reb, 2.2ast, 0stl, 0.2blk, 0.2-3ptm, 34.9%fg, 100%ft, 2.6to]

Marcus must cut down his turnovers to jump any higher on these rankings. He isn’t shy about putting up shots, so he better improve his percentages. Improving his percentages will also mean more 3pters made which will help his fantasy value. His rebounds are nice for a point guard, especially one coming off the bench. But he has yet to contribute any defensive stats, which hurts a lot.

Paul Millsap, F, Utah Jazz
Projected: 11 [LP: 10 | YTD: 8]
[13.3mpg, 4.5ppg, 3.4reb, 0.6ast, 0.14stl, 0.43blk, 0-3ptm, 50%fg, 75%ft, 0.86to]

Paul’s minutes are down, however a recent 9-rebound performance may spark Sloan’s interest in playing him. He has yet to contribute defensive stats like he did in preseason which has also brought his fantasy value way down. But coming off a career high 15-pt, 27-min performance should boost the confidence of his coach and himself.

Andrea Bargnani, F, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 12 [LP: 9 | YTD: 15]
[9.8mpg, 4.3ppg, 1.8reb, 0ast, 0stl, 0.5blk, 0.17-3ptm, 42.3%fg, 60%ft, 0.67to]

Bargnani is way too talented to be playing as little as he is. Yes, Toronto’s depth is much improved, however I am sure he could see at least 15 a night. Foul trouble has not been an issue yet like it was in preseason, however his shooting is right now. He has had some nice blocks and rebounding decently for his limited minutes thus far. With Sam Mitchell needing to win now and win often to still have a job next year, Andrea may not see much more time than he is getting now.

_________________

OFF THE CHARTS

Tyrus Thomas, F, Chicago Bulls
[YTD: 21 | LP: 5]
[9.0mpg, 3.8ppg, 2.8reb, 0.5ast, 0.5stl, 1.0blk, 0-3ptm, 37.5%fg, 30%ft, 1.0to]

Apparently it wasn’t just his game that was Gerald-esque, but also his body too? A broken nose has sidelined this box-score-stuffer and it remains to be seen how he adapts at coming back from injury. Monday’s quote from Skiles pondering if the rookies are even helping the team or not sure hurts Thomas’ current value.

Steve Novak, F, Houston Rockets
[YTD: 13 | LP: 4]
[7.3mpg, 2.7ppg, 1.0reb, 0.3ast, 0stl, 0blk, 0.67-3ptm, 50%fg, 0%ft, 0.3to]

Yet again, someone likes watching me eat crow; this time it’s JVG. Novak goes from almost 25mpg in preseason to under 10 to start the regular season. Come on, the Rockets are not that deep. The kid can shoot and rebound and he tries hard – he should find himself some more playing time throughout the season, especially when T-Mac goes down with his yearly injury. How he can only find the floor in 3 games so far is beyond me.

_________________

KEEP AN EYE ON

Kyle Lowry, G, Memphis Grizzlies
[YTD: 6 | LP: nr]
[15.4mpg, 2.8ppg, 3.2reb, 2.0ast, 1.0stl, 0.2blk, 0-3ptm, 20%fg, 100%ft, 1.4to]

With Eddie Jones struggling, Rudy Gay is not the only benefactor of playing time. Memphis is using some two-PG sets, rotating Damon, Chucky and Kyle in and out of the lineup. A 10-rebound performance on opening night sparked a lot of interest, however a DNP a few nights later showed that consistent minutes may not be in his future this season. However if there is a backcourt injury, Lowry may be a guy to look for.

LaMarcus Aldridge, F, Portland Trailblazers
[YTD: nr | LP: nr]
[19mpg, 10ppg, 8reb, 0ast, 0stl, 0blk, 0-3ptm, 55.6%fg, 0%ft, 0 to]

Solid first game coming off of injury and with the rest of the team nursing injuries, he could see extended minutes right away.

_________________

Projected: Complete projection of the 2006-2007 NBA season
[YTD]: Current rookie ranking based on year-to-date stats
[LP]: The projection in the previous week's 'Dirty Dozen'

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Nick Obergan is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. He publishes 'The Dirty Dozen' bi-weekly. If you'd like to comment on the article, please chime in on the boards.