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The Dirty Dozen
by Nick Obergan — March 20th, 2007

Brandon Roy, G, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 1 [LP: 1 | YTD: 1]
[34.7mpg, 15.8ppg, 4.2reb, 4.0ast, 1.2stl, 0.2blk, 0.93-3ptm, 42.3%fg, 82.9%ft, 1.9 to]

Since the last edition of the DD, Roy improved every statistical category except for free throw shooting, improving by 2 points per game, 1 rebound and 1 assist, as well as over half a three pointer per game. There isn’t anything he doesn’t do well.

Andrea Bargnani, F, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 2 [LP: 2 | YTD: 3]
[24.9mpg, 11.5ppg, 3.9reb, 0.7ast, 0.5stl, 0.8blk, 1.57-3ptm, 42.7%fg, 82.7%ft, 1.6to]

Bargnani continues to increase his comfort level in the NBA game by game, and on some nights he isn’t just the best rookie, but the best Raptor period. He is showing flashes of all sorts of different talents that is sure to make him a star in this league for many years. Raptor fans have every right to be excited by what this young man could become, and no one is second guessing Colangelo’s decision to take him 1st overall.

Jorge Garbajosa, FC, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 3 [LP: 3 | YTD: 2]
[28.0mpg, 8.5ppg, 4.8reb, 1.9ast, 1.2stl, 0.2blk, 0.9-3ptm, 42.5%fg, 72.2%ft, 0.9to]

Despite slumping through most of February and into March, Jorge has still been the second most consistent rookie behind Roy. Despite the “slump”, his stats only suffered very minor decreases, and he still dabbles into every statistical category, and should continue to do so as he is a starter and a main contributor in Toronto’s improvement on the defensive end of the floor.

Rudy Gay, GF, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected: 4 [LP: 4 | YTD: 6]
[26.2mpg, 10.7ppg, 4.4reb, 1.2ast, 0.9stl, 0.9blk, 0.66-3ptm, 42.4%fg, 72.9%ft, 1.6to]

Rudy has seen his average playing time increase 3 minute since the last rankings and he is using those extra minutes very well. His points and rebounds are up, but those were never a big concern. The beautiful thing is, he has upped his field goal percentage from 39 to 42, and his free throws all the way up to 73 – huge leaps for him, causing a huge leap in his fantasy value. Expect much of the same from here on out as the Grizzlies look to give the kids playing experience.

LaMarcus Aldridge, SF/FC, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 5 [LP: 6 | YTD: 4]
[20.6mpg, 8.2ppg, 4.7reb, 0.4ast, 0.3stl, 1.2blk, 0-3ptm, 50.3%fg, 70.9%ft, 0.67 to]

With the trade deadline in the past and Magloire no longer being showcased, Aldridge is seeing the court with more consistency. His game however, is not as consistent. He has definitely shown signs though, as a 30/7 last month showed. Expect much of the same up and downs as the season winds to a close, however his minutes could receive a boost since Portland is almost all but out of the playoff picture.

Paul Millsap, F, Utah Jazz
Projected: 6 [LP: 5 | YTD: 5]
[17.6mpg, 6.6ppg, 4.9reb, 0.7ast, 0.8stl, 1.0blk, 0-3ptm, 51.6%fg, 69.2%ft, 1.1to]

Utah is coasting to a division title and look to have their playoff spot secured, so look for The Postman to receive some additional minutes as we near the start of April. He is right up there with Garbajosa and Roy for the most consistent rookies. The good thing about Millsap is he knows his abilities and doesn’t try to play outside of them. It’s not often you find a low post player who will give you more steals than a guard.

Randy Foye, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 7 [LP: 7 | YTD: 7]
[21.7mpg, 9.3ppg, 2.6reb, 2.7ast, 0.6stl, 0.3blk, 0.7-3ptm, 41.9%fg, 85.3%ft, 1.7to]

Randy started for awhile after the all star break but lost that starting spot in the first week of March thanks to turnovers and all around poor decision making. Most would like to see more assists out of your starting point guard, and I am sure new coach Randy Whitman feels the same way. As Minnesota continues to try and make the playoffs, expect Mike James to keep starting but count on Foye for 20 minutes a night.

Craig Smith, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 8 [LP: 10 | YTD: 8]
[16.6mpg, 6.3ppg, 4.6reb, 0.5ast, 0.6stl, 0.2blk, 0-3ptm, 52.7%fg, 64.2%ft, 0.8to]

His minutes are the same, his stats are the same; you would think this guy was a grizzled vet who just played his role. Don’t expect his role to change while Minnesota tries for the 8th spot in the West. But if they end up on a losing streak and fall out of the picture, he may get an increased role.

Shelden Williams, FC, Atlanta Hawks
Projected: 9 [LP: 8 | YTD: 11]
[17.6mpg, 5.0ppg, 4.8reb, 0.5ast, 0.5stl, 0.4blk, 0.03-3ptm, 43.9%fg, 82.3%ft, 1.1to]

It was bound to happen, a big time reduced role with Marvin back. However having Josh Smith break out didn’t help his cause either. I have never seen a post player struggle from the field the way Shelden has this year either. But if the Hawks want to get themselves the best chance at a top 3 pick (so it doesn’t go to Phoenix), maybe they will play Shelden more toward the end of the year, you know, for “experience.”

Jordan Farmar, G, Los Angeles Lakers
Projected: 10 [LP: 9 | YTD: 13]
[15.8mpg, 4.9ppg, 1.7reb, 2.0ast, 0.6stl, 0.07blk, 0.68-3ptm, 43.1%fg, 72.2%ft, 1.09to]

His year to date ranking as dropped some, but it appears that his role may be increasing thanks to Smush Parker’s inability to stay out of Phil Jackson’s dog house. His shooting has really tailed off, both from the field and from the stripe.

Rajon Rondo, G, Boston Celtics
Projected: 11 [LP: 12 | YTD: 14]
[20.2mpg, 5.4ppg, 3.3reb, 3.4ast, 1.4stl, 0.1blk, 0.1-3ptm, 38.67%fg, 60.3%ft, 1.7to]

Rondo seems to have earned the trust of his coach as he is up 5 minutes per game since the last edition. And he is playing well, his stats are up almost across the board. Too bad his FG% went down, it really hurts his overall value. Boston has used a similar rotation the past while, and with both Wally and Tony Allen out for the rest of the year, look for a lot of two small-guard sets in Boston.

Tyrus Thomas, F, Chicago Bulls
Projected: 12 [LP: nr | YTD: 21]
[12.1mpg, 4,6ppg, 3.5reb, 0.5ast, 0.6stl, 1.1blk, 0-3ptm, 46.9%fg, 58.5%ft, 1.4to]

The last time he played under 15 minutes was February 26th. Coach Skiles really likes the intensity that Tyrus has been bringing to the games, igniting the team with high soaring dunks, big time blocks and all out hustle. A player who was once seen as the 11th man, is being talked about as a potential starting power forward for the rest of the season on an Eastern Conference contender. With these minutes, he should definitely have some value. But will he continue to get them, or will Skiles lean on Old Reliable (PJ Brown)? His turnovers and free throw shooting will hurt you though.

_________________

Projected: Complete projection of the 2006-2007 NBA season
[YTD]: Current rookie ranking based on year-to-date stats
[LP]: The projection in the previous week's 'Dirty Dozen'

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Nick Obergan is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. He publishes 'The Dirty Dozen' bi-weekly. If you'd like to comment on the article, please chime in on the boards.