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The Dirty Dozen
by Nick Obergan — January 17th, 2007

Brandon Roy, G, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 1 [LP: 1 | YTD: 1]
[31.5mpg, 13.7ppg, 3.8reb, 3.0ast, 1.0stl, 0.2blk, 0.39-3ptm, 41.3%fg, 87%ft, 1.5 to]

Roy might have some competition for Rookie of the Year in the NBA, but likely not the fantasy world. He has upped his minutes, points, three pointers and steals while taking a modest hit in assists and free throw percentage. His all around game and consistency cannot be touched by any of the other rookies to date, and not likely for the remainder of the season either.

Andrea Bargnani, F, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 2 [LP: 3 | YTD: 5]
[22.9mpg, 10.4ppg, 3.8reb, 0.7ast, 0.4stl, 0.9blk, 1.19-3ptm, 41.3%fg, 81.3%ft, 1.4to]

As his minutes keep going up, so do his numbers. Across the board he had mild increases, and as every game passes, Raptor fans become more excited. The league is taking notice as well, crediting the Raptors front office for selecting him 1st overall. The more comfortable he gets, the more dangerous he will be. A flashy pass here, a big swat there; throw in a couple facials for good measure. He is a big time talent and by the end of the season he should be challenging for Rookie of the Year as I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pass 25 minutes per game (keep in mind he averaged around 9 for his first month).

Jorge Garbajosa, FC, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 3 [LP: 2 | YTD: 2]
[29.3mpg, 8.7ppg, 5.5reb, 2.0ast, 1.2stl, 0.3blk, 0.53-3ptm, 42.9%fg, 75%ft, 1.1to]

“The Mechanic” missed some time with a calf injury and he has been slowed a bit since. However his numbers have went virtually unchanged across the board – which is exactly what we have come to expect out of the big Spaniard. Sam Mitchell said in a recent interview that he plans to start the frontcourt of Rasho-Bosh-Garbo for the remainder of the season, so that bodes well for Jorge owners. Between 25-30 minutes, depending on matchups, should be expected from here on out.

Rudy Gay, GF, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected: 4 [LP: 4 | YTD: 10]
[23.4mpg, 8.6ppg, 4.0reb, 1.0ast, 0.9stl, 0.8blk, 0.29-3ptm, 38.3%fg, 66.3%ft, 1.5to]

I will be the first to admit that I thought Rudy would really flourish with the coaching change. Jerry West and Tony Barone (come on, am I the only one who thinks that name is funny?) said they were going to let the kids run, and let them play. However Rudy’s minutes are the same, his points are down, his percentages are still awful and his only saving grace is nice rebounding and defensive stats for a wing who plays his amount of minutes. He has the potential to do better, and hopefully toward the end of the year the new system will benefit him more and more.

Paul Millsap, F, Utah Jazz
Projected: 5 [LP: 6 | YTD: 6]
[15.3mpg, 6.0ppg, 4.1reb, 0.5ast, 0.7stl, 0.9blk, 0-3ptm, 55.9%fg, 68.6%ft, 1.1to]

Not a lot of movement in stats for this edition. Everyone’s minutes are staying relatively the same. Millsap gets the bump over Aldridge here because for the time being, his minutes are steadier and more guaranteed. He continues to be the steal of the 2nd round.

LaMarcus Aldridge, SF/FC, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 6 [LP: 5 | YTD: 7]
[18.8mpg, 6.9ppg, 4.0reb, 0.4ast, 0.3stl, 0.9blk, 0-3ptm, 49.1%fg, 73.3%ft, 0.6 to]

Magloire continues to be showcased, and until he is actually moved, poor LaMarcus will see his minutes go up and down more than a 13 year old girl at a Nick Lachey concert. A 6 percent drop in his free throw percentage negated any small positives he gained in the other categories. He has definitely shown good flashes though and will hopefully be able to showcase himself by the end of the season.

Randy Foye, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 7 [LP: 11 | YTD: 9]
[18.9mpg, 8.4ppg, 2.1reb, 2.1ast, 0.7stl, 0.3blk, 0.43-3ptm, 42.3%fg, 84.7%ft, 1.7to]

Huge jump here for Randy, and much deserved. We also credit Dwayne Casey with this jump as Randy’s minutes have increased 3 per game since the last edition and he has made the most of them. Virtually every stat has been improved and he has also shown some clutch down the stretch. He is playing more, and the Wolves are winning more. Coincidence?

Shelden Williams, FC, Atlanta Hawks
Projected: 8 [LP: 9 | YTD: 4]
[22.3mpg, 6.6ppg, 6.3reb, 0.5ast, 0.7stl, 0.6blk, 0.06-3ptm, 46.7%fg, 86.9%ft, 1.5to]

Minutes are up, points are up, rebounds are up, field goal percentage is up, and turnovers are down. Shelden filled in nicely when J-Smoove was injured and it seems like anytime someone comes back from injury, another guy goes down. With that a possible trend, Shelden could see consistent minutes all season long as they need to really get their young guys more and more experience. In the meantime, can someone tell me what that huge shoulder sleeve is all about? How has Stern not made a rule against that all ready?

Jordan Farmar, G, LA Lakers
Projected: 9 [LP: 8 | YTD: 8]
[17.3mpg, 6.1ppg, 1.7reb, 2.4ast, 0.6stl, 0.06blk, 0.86-3ptm, 48.0%fg, 78.3%ft, 1.09to]

Though his minutes are sparse, he gets involved when he is in there. And considering Phil Jackson is his coach, there really isn’t a lot of wiggle room in trying to get more minutes. The best thing he can do is to keep being consistent and effective. He improved his field goal percentage by 15 percent, which is awesome, and he has low turnovers for a point guard. At the very least, he shouldn’t hit the rookie wall because he is playing less minutes than a lot of his peers.

Craig Smith, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 10 [LP: 10 | YTD: 8]
[16.8mpg, 6.5ppg, 4.7reb, 0.6ast, 0.7stl, 0.2blk, 0-3ptm, 55.2%fg, 63.8%ft, 0.9to]

His minutes are dropping and the Wolves are winning – not a good sign if you are Craig. Another bad sign when you are searching for P.T. is the fact that Mark Blount is actually playing well. The positive if you are Craig? You likely won’t be leaving the D.D. because the rest of your rookie class is very underwhelming.

Adam Morrison, GF/PF, Charlotte Bobcats
Projected: 11 [LP: 7 | YTD: 23]
[32.9mpg, 13.7ppg, 3.1reb, 2.1ast, 0.3stl, 0.1blk, 1.2-3ptm, 37.4%fg, 74.5%ft, 1.7to]

I hope you aren’t surprised. He has dropped 10 spots in the real fantasy rookie rankings from 13 to 23 and has plummeted all the way to 310 in the complete NBA rankings. Now, that is not a fine tuned list – there might be a few players with not enough games to quality – but he is still looking at being ranked around 280-300 in the whole NBA. And Matt Carroll is still starting over him – and greatly out playing him. Truly he probably shouldn’t be on the list anymore, but you have to believe he is better than this. If nothing else, he is valuable for his threes. My recommendation: shave the ‘stache.

Rajon Rondo, G, Boston Celtics
Projected: 12 [LP: nr | YTD: 16]
[15.0mpg, 4.1ppg, 2.4reb, 2.2ast, 1.1stl, 0.01blk, 0.03-3ptm, 41.7%fg, 60.7%ft, 1.3to]

Finally! Someone new to write about! Marcus Williams, the previous owner of spot 12, was very underwhelming, and Rondo all of a sudden has a lot of opportunity to play. Injuries to Delonte West, Tony Allen, Wally Szczerbiak and Paul Pierce have opened up a lot of playing time in the backcourt, and Rondo hasn’t looked too bad lately. His percentages, a previous sore-spot, are modestly improved. He has a nice all around game that could help you if you are in a real pinch for a couple of weeks.

_________________

Projected: Complete projection of the 2006-2007 NBA season
[YTD]: Current rookie ranking based on year-to-date stats
[LP]: The projection in the previous week's 'Dirty Dozen'

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Nick Obergan is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. He publishes 'The Dirty Dozen' bi-weekly. If you'd like to comment on the article, please chime in on the boards.