Brandon Roy, G, Portland Trailblazers
Projected: 1 [YTD: 6]
[34.8mpg, 14.7ppg, 3.3reb, 3.4ast, 0.5stl, 0.5blk, 0.625-3ptm, 45.8%fg, 80.4%ft, 3.13to]

Roy had a stellar preseason, becoming the front-runner for Rookie of the Year. He led all rookies in playing time and was second in points. Unfortunately he was also near the tops in turnovers. If he cuts those turnovers in half he could leapfrog virtually everyone ahead of him in the standings. He seems to have the trust of his coaching staff early on which bodes well for his playing time and his great percentages should keep him on the floor. Wouldn’t place the bump to 1.0 steal and 1.0 3PTM out of the question by year-end either.

Rudy Gay, SF, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected: 2 [YTD: 4]
[27.3mpg, 13.9ppg, 3.9reb, 0.9ast, 1.3stl, 1.4blk, 0.6-3ptm, 39.5%fg, 83.3%ft, 2.29to]

Rudy had a very good preseason, starting 5 of 7 games and being encouraged to shoot at will in the absence of Gasol (his 12.3 FGA per game was second only to Adam Morrison’s 12.7). There should be no fear of his minutes being cut from 27 per game, especially if he is spot starting. The Czar appears to enjoy having Mike Miller come off the bench, so that will help Rudy’s playing time and confidence. If he can cut his turnovers down to 1.5 and improve his field goal percentage to around 42% he would have been the top fantasy rookie during the preseason. Given more time, I don’t see how this isn’t possible. I could also foresee his defensive stats bumping to at least 1.5/1.5 by season’s end.

Rajon Rondo, G, Boston Celtics
Projected: 3 [YTD: 2]
[29.3mpg, 11.1ppg, 3.5reb, 4.9ast, 2.2stl, 0.1blk, 0.4-3ptm, 47.7%fg, 72.7%ft, 1.13to]

Here we have one of the biggest surprises of the preseason. Got an early bump in playing time due to Delonte West’s injury and his minutes were definitely cut back once West returned. However his strong defensive play (led all rookies with 2.2 steals per game) could see Rondo challenging Telfair for the starting spot. He put up strong rebounding numbers for a guard and also takes very good care of the basketball. Rondo really only needs to improve on his free throws to be the top fantasy rookie. However we will closely monitor his minutes to see if his stats will be going up or down.

Steve Novak, F, Houston Rockets
Projected: 4 [YTD: 1]
[24.6mpg, 11.7ppg, 4.3reb, 0.7ast, 0.4stl, 0blk, 2.4-3ptm, 52.9%fg, 91.7%ft, 0.86to]

THE biggest surprise in preseason. This second round pick came out of nowhere to sink almost 2.5 three pointers a game but still hitting the glass at over 4 a game. His percentages can make the freaks drool and with Houston’s worse-than-weak bench you can’t really say he isn’t a lock for close to 25 minutes a night. With Yao doubled in the post and T-Mac doubled everywhere else, a guy like Novak is sure to see many open looks. Still, we have to keep a close eye on him to make sure preseason wasn’t just a mirage.

Tyrus Thomas, F, Chicago Bulls
Projected: 5 [YTD: 5]
[19.5mpg, 9.4ppg, 4.4reb, 0.9ast, 1.5stl, 1.2blk, 0-3ptm, 49.1%fg, 72.4%ft, 1.88to]

Many thought that Thomas would take more time to develop into an NBA player because of his raw skill-set, youth, and lack of experience. However, in preseason Thomas was filling up box scores like Gerald-lite. Very strong defensive stats spark any fantasy freak’s interest, and his percentages are also very respectable. He has said to be working on his outside shooting, which is a plus because he is rather small for a power forward. One thing we would like to see is his turnovers down. He didn’t play a lot of minutes in preseason either, but I probably wouldn’t expect him to go over 20 in the regular season, so his stats-to-date may be indicative of the season.

Jorge Garbajosa, F, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 6 [YTD: 11]
[24.4mpg, 8.5ppg, 3.5reb, 0.9ast, 0.8stl, 0.1blk, 1.75-3ptm, 37.7%fg, 83.3%ft, 1.5to]

In training camp, Jorge’s playing time was uncertain as he figured to be Bosh’s backup at the 4. However, now Bosh has planter fasciitis, and as Tim Duncan has shown us, it is hard to play a full season and log 40 minutes a night with that problem. So Jorge should see good minutes off of the bench, probably similar to the 23-29 he played in preseason. The knock on his field goal percentage was accurate, however his inability to hit the NBA three was completely false. Close to 2 3PTM, 1 assist and 1 steal is very nice for a big man off the bench. His chemistry with fellow bench player Jose Calderon will keep Jorge very comfortable on the court and play to his strengths.

Marcus Williams, PG, New Jersey Nets
Projected: 7 [YTD: 3]
[28.2mpg, 16.0ppg, 2.7reb, 7.0ast, 1.0stl, 0.2blk, 2.0-3ptm, 43.8%fg, 83.3%ft, 3.5to]

Marcus had the best looking stats in preseason except for his very high turnovers. The reason he isn’t getting any R.O.Y. talk is because no one figures him to play 28 minutes in the regular season. Kidd deserves to rest before the real games begin, but unless there is an injury, expect Marcus to play closer to 20 minutes a night, severely cutting into his fantasy value and his all around game. He really has to learn to take care of the ball though. 3.5 turnovers in bench minutes is grotesque.

Randy Foye, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected: 8 [YTD: 15]
[19.4mpg, 7.5ppg, 1.4reb, 0.8ast, 0.9stl, 0.2blk, 0.25-3ptm, 40.5%fg, 87.5%ft, 1.75to]

Foye was also a big preseason surprise, but for all of the wrong reasons. He certainly didn’t show that he is able to challenge Hassell or Jaric for playing time and at times looked like a deer caught in the headlights. As he adapts throughout the season, you would hope he gets over 1 assist, hopefully even up to 2 per game and that he shoots better than 22% from downtown to up his 3PTM.

Andrea Bargnani, PF, Toronto Raptors
Projected: 9 [YTD: 13]
[17.4mpg, 9.6ppg, 3.7reb, 0.6ast, 0.4stl, 0.4blk, 1.0-3ptm, 38.6%fg, 72.7%ft, 1.43to]

Andrea, as most expected, is coming along slowly. He shows flashes of brilliance and a great shooting stroke from mid to long range. His field goal percentage is quite lower than anticipated thus far and his minutes are down. With Bosh hurting he could see more minutes, possibly some starts. But in order for him to stay on the floor to improve his stats he is going to have to adapt quicker on the defensive end to keep out of foul trouble. If he can do that, his opportunities will come.

Paul Millsap, PF, Utah Jazz
Projected: 10 [YTD: 7]
[17.5mpg, 7.9ppg, 7.4reb, 0.4ast, 0.8stl, 0.5blk, 0-3ptm, 48.0%fg, 65.2%ft, 0.75to]

Paul has had no problems battling Rafael Araujo for backup bigman minutes in preseason and he is producing beyond anyone’s expectations. His 7.4 rebounds per game leads all rookies. Pro-rate that to 35 minutes and he would be averaging 14.8 a game! But in his 17.5 minutes in preseason he also averaged 3.8 fouls so he would never get that many minutes. If he can get that under control he could see 20 a night in the regular season and get close to 8 rebounds and 1 steal off the bench. Free throw shooting needs work. Though the Jazz frontcourt is deep, he is one Boozer-injury away from 25+ minutes.

Shelden Williams, PF, Atlanta Hawks
Projected: 11 [YTD: 8]
[22.6mpg, 8.5ppg, 6.4reb, 0.8ast, 0.4stl, 0.9blk, 0-3ptm, 45.3%fg, 80%ft, 1.63to]

Not many rookies see their minutes jump immediately following preseason, but with the injury to Marvin Williams, it is very possible Atlanta starts Shelden at power forward out of the gates. He put up solid, though unspectacular, numbers in preseason and a jump to 27 minutes a game should increase his value – enabling him to get over 1 block and close to 8 rebounds a game. His 80% free throw shooting is nice for a big man, but his situation will be closely monitored game to game to see how he is used in their lineup.

Jordan Farmar, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
Projected: 12 [YTD: 9]
[18.1mpg, 8.2ppg, 1.8reb, 2.5ast, 1.8stl, 0blk, 0.75-3ptm, 49%fg, 66.7%ft, 1.75to]

What you see is likely what you will get all season from Farmar. Not likely to start, not likely to play very heavy minutes, but a player that will play his role and play it very well. Nice assist, 3pt and steal numbers off the bench. The 18mpg is probably something you can expect in the regular season as well. Would like to see him improve on the free throw percentage and as the season comes along he should drop the turnovers a bit.

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OFF THE CHARTS

Adam Morrison, F/G, Charlotte Bobcats
[YTD: 21]
[26.8mpg, 11.6ppg, 1.9reb, 1.6ast, 0stl, 0blk, 0.625-3ptm, 36%fg, 69.6%ft, 1.63to]

A nightmare of a preseason for Morrison. Scored a bit, shot terribly, didn’t contribute well in any category. Will have to show a lot of improvement in multiple categories to make any fantasy impact.

Thabo Sefolosha, SG, Chicago Bulls
[YTD: 20]
[19mpg, 5.6ppg, 2.5reb, 2.6ast, 0.6stl, 0.4blk, 0.125-3ptm, 34%fg, 71.4%ft, 2.25to]

Thabo showed some good things and some bad things in the preseason. Contributed well off the bench with rebounding and assists for an off-guard, and touched a little bit in the defensive categories. However he had a terrible field goal percentage and didn’t hit a 3 until his last game. Also had very high turnover numbers for someone not playing the point and not playing 20 minutes. Things he will have to work on before he gets any love from us.

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Projected: Complete projection of the 2006-2007 NBA season
[YTD]: Current rookie ranking based on year-to-date stats

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Nick Obergan is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. He'll be covering this year's rookie class throughout the year, chiming in on their current values and long-term potential in fantasyland. If you'd like to comment on the article, please chime in on the boards.