RotoFreak :: Articles :: New Look, New Season

How To Be A Menace In Fantasy Basketball
(While Not Coming Off Like A Noob)
by Kish Patel— October 4th, 2006

Well, 'Freaks, it's that time of the year again. The offseason is behind us, training camps are swinging into full gear, and optimism reigns supreme. And not just among the hardcore among you who have already finished your first eight offline drafts. We're talking optimism everywhere. The Warriors are pledging to turn it around under Nellie and the Sixers expect to be better with the addition of, uh, Rodney Carney. And Larry "The Finger" Hughes feels great. Said Larry, "I don't have any problems with it. I can reach with it, I'm able to block shots, everything I couldn't do last year I can do now." Since Larry hit a career high in blocks per game last year, we suspect Larry has spent the offseason refashioning himself into the second coming of Dikembe Mutombo.

Remember, young grasshoppers: Don't believe the hype. This will be a common message as we examine the most common mistakes fantasy players make at the beginning of the season.

Lesson One: Points are the most overrated stat.

Why are points so overrated? Because that's what people talk about. When you come home from winning your rec league championship, nobody will ask you what your free-throw percentage was.

If you score twenty a game in the NBA, you are often viewed as a star. But in many fantasy leagues there are nine categories, and you ignore the other eight at your own peril. Twenty a game is chopped liver if you're only a 2-cat player (see Ben Gordon). High scorers can even hurt you if they're shooting 40% (see Baron Davis). Don't be blinded by points.

Lesson Two: Stats are relative.

Twenty points per game or three blocks a game, what's better?..... What? Did you even read Lesson One? Stats like blocks, three pointers, and assists are important because they're rare. Twenty-eight players averaged twenty points a game last year. As for blocks, only two players averaged more than three a game. Only eleven averaged more than two blocks a game. You also want to target players who are better than average across the board. If a player is above average in points and rebounds, but below average in steals, assists, threes, FT%, and turnovers, he may not even be worth a draft spot. McCurry, we're talking to you.

Lesson Three: Tanking categories is not a good idea.

What makes this strategy so risky is that you need almost total dominance to pull it off. Tank a category and you're looking at having to win five of the remaining eight every week to stay above .500 for the year. Plus, category killers like Shaq (FT%), Steve Francis (turnovers), and Rafer Alston (FG%), will be valued far less by other members of your league than they will by you. That means low trade value, and getting stuck with the player. Injuries can also derail this plan. We don't care how much you love The Finger. Just don't do it.

Lesson Four: Don't reach for rookies.

Unless you've done some thorough research about what type of player a rookie was in college, where he'll fit into an NBA depth chart, what kind of minutes he'll get, and how valuable his stats will be, you're better off taking someone established. Taking Brandon Roy in the top fifty is just asking for trouble.

You say, "Yeah, but Chris Paul--"

Yeah, but Chris Paul is superhuman. He can read your mind and turn you into a pretzel. And for every Chris Paul, there is a Skita and an Araujo, or a player like Marvin or Martell who needs a year under his belt before he can justify a top 100 draft position. Trust us, Freaks, unless you've been around a while, take the ten sure things instead of the one gamble.

Lesson Five: Teams matter.

An eighth man on Phoenix could be more valuable than a starter on Detroit. Other fantasy-friendly teams include the Raptors and the Celtics. Ugly teams include Memphis and Houston--check out their team field goal attempts and percentage. Also watch out for coaches who play deep or inconsistent rotations. Do you really want to spend an entire year plotting revenge against Scott Skiles? Is he really worth a voodoo doll?

Lesson Five: It's never too early to start thinking about H2H playoff schedules.

See H2H playoff schedules here. This year there aren't that many terrific schedules, but there are some real stinkers. All other things equal, you can use playoff schedules to break a tie when it comes to drafting your players. This will make trades easier down the road.

Lesson Six: Draft the best player available.

Rafael Araujo. That's all we have to say. (Fine, Babcock... Charlie Villanueva. Happy?)

Lesson Seven: Centers are important.

If you've every played fantasy basketball, you should understand why centers are valuable. It's because, like certain statistical categories, good centers are rare. What makes it worse is that in many leagues the default setup is to play two centers. By the time you get round to drafting number two, you might be looking at guys like Rasho Nesterovic or Theo Ratliff. Now, we know we said to draft the best player available, but we wanted to stress the importance of centers because the scarcity of center eligibility adds instant value. This is one of the reasons Chris Kaman might be viewed as more valuable than Stephon Marbury.

Lesson Eight: Don't trade yourself out of it before the season starts.

You're itching to get the season started. You want to improve your team. You're sure you're going to fleece the other manager. You can't wait to get his Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson for your stupid autodrafted Rashard Lewis. You're getting, like, thirty-five points a game in exchange for twenty! Right? Right?

Whoa there, Huckleberry, come on back to the stable.

Check the percentages and the turnovers. And who are you going to have to drop to make room for the extra player? How deep is your league? This leads us to...

Lesson Nine: Depth is less important in smaller leagues.

In a 20-team, 13-player league, there are 260 players taken. After that, there will likely be a lot of junk on the waiver wire. A handful of gems might reveal themselves as the year goes by, but it'll take vigilance. If you make a two-for-one, where you're giving two, you should see who you'll have to pick up to round out your roster. In a shallow league of 12 teams, only 144 players are off the market. If you trade up in a two-for-one, it will be much easier to replace lost depth on the waiver wire.

Lesson Ten: Have fun.

We're not your mother. We won't pretend like it's good enough to come in ninth place. If you build around James Posey and Antoine Walker because you like the Heat, we won't hesitate to call you insane. But at the end of the day, it's only a game. If you have to cheat to win, then what's the point of playing the game? If you can't focus on work or school because you're obsessed with fantasy basketball, then--wait, no, we shouldn't be hypocrites. Go ahead. Be obsessed. Just remember to eat and bathe once in a while, would you?

Have a great season, 'Freaks!

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Kish Patel is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. If you'd like to comment on the article, please chime in on the boards.