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06-07
Rookie Review
by Nick Obergan
— October 16th, 2006
Brandon
Roy
– G – Trailblazers
Judging by recent communications out of the Blazers training camp, Roy
could find playing time at three positions this year – point guard,
shooting guard (his natural position), and small forward. This is a little
bewildering, as coach Nate McMillan has never been the easiest coach for
a rookie to play for. However with Darius Miles not ready to return at
the beginning of the season, Roy may find backup minutes at the 3 –
meaning he could see 30 minutes any night to begin the season. RealGM.com
also published that McMillan is hesitant to play Roy too much at small
forward because he wants him to get a lot of reps in at the point. Our
pre-season prediction is that Roy’s role will be first guard off
the bench, subbing in at both point guard and shooting guard positions.
However with Martell Webster said to be starting at small forward with
Miles out, Roy could earn the starting nod at shooting guard, with his
only competition Juan Dixon. Whatever his role may be, Roy will see enough
minutes to be a solid fantasy contributor. Pegged just after the top-100
in the Freaks preseason cheatsheets goes to show what Roy’s all
around game brings to the table. He will get you decent assist, rebound,
and % numbers for a combo guard. In his Summer League play he shot 67%
from the field, scoring 19.0ppg, 3.4reb, 3.6asst. His steal numbers were
atrociously low at 0.6 but I would expect him to lean over 1 per game.
This was all in 26.4mpg mind you. Could be the top fantasy rookie this
year, definitely one to watch.
Randy
Foye
– G – Timberwolves
Foye is likely to begin the season with a similar role to that of Roy
– combo guard off the bench. Newly signed Mike James figures to
be the starting point guard, and Trenton Hassell likely will begin the
season as the starting shooting guard for defensive reasons. Either that
or Marko Jaric. Foye is basically a replica of Mike James. He is a shooting
guard in a point guard’s body. He is a very potent scorer and has
improved his percentages all four years at Villanova. Expect to see a
lot of two-PG sets in Minnesota this year with Foye coming off the bench
and playing alongside James. Though this will hurt them defensively, this
will form a dynamic scoring punch. Add in Ricky Davis and Kevin Garnett
and they will put up a lot of points. Foye only averaged 2.2 assists in
his Summer League play, and 3.0 in his final college year, so those numbers
could be low for someone listed at PG. However his 4.2 rebounds in SL
and 5.8 in his final collegiate year are very strong numbers for a point
guard fantasy wise and may even out his low assist numbers. He shot a
blistering 53% in SL play, 37.5% from three and close to 87% from the
charity stripe so he is a good contributor there. 2.2 steals in Summer
League also increased his draft stock – however don’t get
your hopes up for over 2 steals per game against NBA stars. I’ve
seen Foye as one of the first rookies taken in a lot of drafts and as
high as the top 120. That may be a little high to begin with though. Look
for him anytime after 150 unless it’s a keeper league. A lot of
people are screaming Rookie of the Year early on for Foye, but will it
translate to Fantasy ROY?
Adam
Morrison
– SF – Bobcats
There isn’t a basketball fan in the world who knocks Morrison’s
uncanny ability to fill it up on any given night. The question is, will
he bring anything else to the table fantasy wise? Morrison is not a strong
rebounder, and that hurts his value as a forward. He also won’t
provide you with a lot of assists. His lack of athleticism and speed will
also hinder his defensive stats so don’t look for a lot of steals
or blocks here (0.2 and 0.4 in Summer League respectively). So basically
Morrison will be drafted for 3 reasons: points, threes and percentages.
If that is what you are looking for when you draft him, that is what you
will get. Let’s just hope that his defensive shortcomings don’t
keep him off the court for long stretches. If they don’t, he could
be a top 120 player just based on points and percentages.
Andrea
Bargnani
– F – Raptors
The Raptors brass and coaching staff have publicly stated they feel no
pressure to play Bargnani if he is not ready for the minutes. They feel
they can bring him along slowly as he adjusts to the NBA game. This alone
has fantasy owners hesitant on drafting him. He posses all the tools needed
to be an NBA star and fantasy stud. Strong outside game, great size, good
blocking ability: these usually spell fantasy success. Raptor fans are
hoping he is their long-term answer at the center position as he is bigger
than Chris Bosh. They would definitely cause match up problems. Bargnani
though would have to bulk up a bit and learn to defend inside before that
happens on a regular basis. Recent comments from training camp had Bargnani
exclusively guarding the centers as they hope to make that his primary
position. If he gets C-eligibility, his stock will certainly rise. Rumor
has it they are steadily working on his inside game as well so that he
does not rely on his outside shoot exclusively. This was very evident
in his very first Summer League action, as his first attempt was a drive
to the basket with a trip to the free throw line. We think he can do better
than his 3.8 SL rebounds, hoping to get closer to the 5.5 he put up in
Europe last season as he plays closer to the basket defensively. He won’t
hurt you in the free throw column and should get you 45% and 35% on his
other shooting stats as well. And his 1 block per game in SL should be
duplicated throughout the regular season. Look for Andrea around 120-130.
Rudy
Gay
– SF – Grizzlies
It appeared that on draft night many GMs around the league didn’t
see the same all-around game that we Freaks can see, as Rudy slipped way
down the draft board to the Rockets. But the Rockets have never been kind
to fantasy owners, they’ve got TMac at the 3, and they’re
in a win-now approach under JVG. So a trade to the Grizzlies – who
have Gasol out for a few months, an injury prone Mike Miller at the 3,
and an aging Eddie Jones at the 2 - certainly boosted his stock. To begin
the season, he will likely see an increase in his minutes due to Gasol’s
foot injury and could perhaps (albeit unlikely) start at small forward.
Rudy posses a Josh Smith-like game, however he has a better shooting stroke
but won’t get quite as many blocks. Rudy is a potential threat to
be a 7-cat player; his main downside being the possibility of high turnovers.
He shoots the ball well from inside and out, though only shoots around
73% from the charity stripe. He has very long arms which help him to contribute
in the defensive categories as well. If he can put it all together and
get rid of the knock on his work ethic, he could be one of the top fantasy
players in his prime. This season look for him to be a top-130ish player,
but you could probably draft him lower unless it’s a keeper league.
LaMarcus
Aldridge
– PF - Trailblazers
Unless you are in a keeper league, Aldridge shouldn’t be on your
list for this year. He is coming off of off-season surgery and won’t
be ready for the season opener. Portland also has a plethora of bigs in
Randolph, Lafrentz, Przybilla and Magloire all ahead of him on the depth
chart. His longterm positives are rebounding, blocked shots, field goal
percentage, and could even help in the steals and turnover categories.
But don’t count on any help this season.
Shelden
Williams
– PF – Hawks
Just because Billy Knight reached to draft him, doesn’t mean you
should. With Al Harrington gone, there is a void in the starting power
forward slot, but don’t expect it to be filled by this Williams.
The likely starting forwards will be Marvin and Josh Smith, with Childress
being the backup swingman and Shelden backing up the 4. Some will argue
that he will get a lot of playing time because of the Hawks’ weak
frontcourt. However the addition of Lorenzen Wright will cut into Shelden’s
playing time if he isn’t ready to contribute. Though he dominated
at the college level, I wouldn’t expect the same results against
NBA caliber big men. Shelden is a little small in NBA standards, but his
freakishly long wingspan makes him a very good shot blocker and he will
also get you a steal a game in starter’s minutes. A good back to
the basket player with good field goal percentages and a very good rebounder,
Shelden will have some value this year as a primary backup 4-man. Pre-season
rankings have him around 180, but don’t expect his stock to jump
too much until the end of the season when Atlanta mails it in and wants
to see their young guys play more.
Jorge
Garbajosa
– F – Raptors
This 29-year old rookie from Spain likes to play outside however will
likely see most of his minutes backing up Chris Bosh at the 4. Known as
a banger on the defensive end, Jorge will bring rebounding and steals
to the table. He knows how to score, the problem is it takes him more
shots to do so as he has a history of weak percentages, especially from
beyond the arc. And that’s the Euro-arc, shorter than the NBA. He
also averaged 2.3 assists in Euroleague play last year, a league known
for low assist numbers. His current value is pegged around 175. As the
main backup to Bosh, and someone making the transition from Europe to
the NBA, I wouldn’t reach to get him higher than that.
Rodney
Carney
– SF – 76ers
Not an ideal situation for Carney to be placed in if he wants to be a
fantasy success out of the gates; however, it’s definitely a situation
to keep an eye on. He’s freakishly athletic and has all of the tools
to be a 9-cat fantasy player; however, the success of Carney this year
likely revolves around his defense. If he can adjust to the speed and
size of the NBA game, he’ll be challenging Ashton Korver and Willie
Green for that starting spot. If he can’t, he will see minutes as
the primary backup to both the shooting guard and small forward spots,
therefore possibly seeing 25 minutes a game. Either way, with AI, Webber
and Korver on board, he is likely not going to see the ball much to show
his scoring touch. He is smart and steady and there is an opening for
minutes if the cards go his way. He’s somebody that you’ll
want to keep an eye on down the stretch, especially if the Sixers aren’t
in the playoff hunt. His current value sits around 190-200 in non-keeper
leagues.
Ronnie
Brewer
– G – Jazz
Brewer sits comfortably at #200 on both the roto and h2h preseason rankings.
He has a lot of upside and could see a decent amount of minutes in his
rookie campaign thanks in large part to Utah’s lack of shooting
guards. However, caution has a name, and that name is Jerry Sloan. The
man doesn’t think highly of rookies, and vastly misused Deron Williams
last year even though he was the team’s best point guard. In 25
minutes at Summer League, Brewer averaged 16 points on 56% shooting. He
had low rebound and assist numbers but his 1.7 steals per game were rather
nice. Brewer also has very good ball handling skills so his turnovers
should stay low. Keep an eye on him. In small leagues, he could be a nice
waiver wire pickup if he gets minutes.
Marcus
Williams
– PG – Nets
To me, Williams’ role and minutes appeared to be a lock on this
Nets team as Jason Kidd’s heir apparent. However the signing of
ex-Bull Jay Williams has some thinking Marcus has a lot of competition
for the primary backup role. In the NBA today, there isn’t a better
point guard to learn from than Kidd – a one-time dominant fantasy
player and still a triple-double threat every night. Williams was knocked
for being overweight in pre-draft camp, however his Summer League play
should have quieted all naysayers. He had 16.6ppg, hitting 10 of 18 three
pointers, dished out 9.3 assists, added a steal per game, 3.4 rebounds
and shot 84% from the free throw line for good measure. Obviously he won’t
be getting 32 minutes a night in the regular season, however the upside
is there for Marcus to have strong keeper league value. Last year the
Nets played a lot of two point guard sets with Kidd and Jacque Vaughn
on the court together. Williams is a better player than Vaughn and the
Nets still have no depth so this is still an option to get him minutes.
However, it still remains to be seen if he will be the primary backup,
so look for him on the waiver wire if he starts seeing consistent bench
minutes and contributes.
Tyrus
Thomas
– F – Bulls
Thomas is a tweener forward; too small to be a power forward, not enough
outside game to be a small forward. The Bulls are set at the small forward
spot with Nocioni and Deng so he is unlikely to see time there. The Bulls
also beefed up their frontcourt this offseason with the signing of Ben
Wallace and the trade for P.J. Brown. Don’t forget about Michael
Sweetney still in the mix as well. Thomas’ Summer League digits
show he is better suited playing inside as he stunk it up from beyond
the arc at a clip of 16.7%. He did manage to score 16 and haul down 7
boards, but percentages were weak for a big man across the board. He has
some keeper value, as it is yet to be seen whether he will indeed become
an exciting hustle player who will bring the defensive stats, or whether
he will be a worse version of Stromile Swift. With the Bulls making a
charge for the playoffs, we think Tyrus’ immediate value is limited.
Jordan
Farmar
– PG – Lakers
Farmar will be strictly a waiver-wire player to begin the season. No one
expects much of him. But who is going to steal his minutes as primary
backup point guard to Smush Parker? Sasha Vujacic? Farmar is better than
him. Aaron McKie? Apparently being bought out due to a sore back. Farmar
had a decent Summer League – 16 points, 3 rebounds, 4.4 assists,
1.7 steals, 52% field goals – and could find wide open shots playing
alongside Kobe and the Kobettes. However I would wait to see some success
before looking for him on the wire. Phil doesn’t like to play rookies
too much, and would probably rather have Odom play backup point guard
than a rookie. However give him a couple of years and he could be a Chris
Duhon-type player but upped to 34 minutes.
J.J.
Redick
– SG – Magic
Redick figures to be a one dimensional and three-cat player at this point:
3-pointers and percentages. The kid is a lights out shooter. Or at least
he was in college. Will he have the same success against NBA defenders,
the majority of which are bigger and quicker than he is? It remains to
be seen if he will be anything more than Fred Hoidberg. Redick is not
someone to put on your list for this season, as he did not make the Freaks
top-200 rankings for the preseason. He will only have value in keeper
leagues at this point, and even then I wouldn’t reach for the trigger
until the later rounds. Might want to let this guy prove himself first.
If he shows he can play, and when Grant Hill goes down with an injury,
his playing time could see a very large bump leading the masses to the
waiver wire.
Rajon
Rondo
– PG – Celtics
So, Rondo is outplaying Sebastian Telfair in exhibition play, and Delonte
West, who was barely holding onto his starting spot coming into camp,
is nursing yet another injury. Is there a window of opportunity here?
Sure. But it is preseason and if Rondo puts up 4 points, 3 assists and
2 turnovers with no steals and no 3s in his next game off the bench, most
of that hype will go away. We’re keeping an eye on him, as his defensive
abilities and pass-first approach could make him the future point guard
for this team. The keyword there is future. But, based on a few preseason
games, we’re not ready to put him ahead of both Delonte and Telfair
in the depth charts.
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Nick Obergan is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. He'll be covering this
year's rookie class throughout the year, chiming in on their current values
and long-term potential in fantasyland. If you'd like to comment on the
article, please chime in on
the boards.
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