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06-07 Rookie Review
by Nick Obergan — October 16th, 2006

Brandon Roy – G – Trailblazers
Judging by recent communications out of the Blazers training camp, Roy could find playing time at three positions this year – point guard, shooting guard (his natural position), and small forward. This is a little bewildering, as coach Nate McMillan has never been the easiest coach for a rookie to play for. However with Darius Miles not ready to return at the beginning of the season, Roy may find backup minutes at the 3 – meaning he could see 30 minutes any night to begin the season. RealGM.com also published that McMillan is hesitant to play Roy too much at small forward because he wants him to get a lot of reps in at the point. Our pre-season prediction is that Roy’s role will be first guard off the bench, subbing in at both point guard and shooting guard positions. However with Martell Webster said to be starting at small forward with Miles out, Roy could earn the starting nod at shooting guard, with his only competition Juan Dixon. Whatever his role may be, Roy will see enough minutes to be a solid fantasy contributor. Pegged just after the top-100 in the Freaks preseason cheatsheets goes to show what Roy’s all around game brings to the table. He will get you decent assist, rebound, and % numbers for a combo guard. In his Summer League play he shot 67% from the field, scoring 19.0ppg, 3.4reb, 3.6asst. His steal numbers were atrociously low at 0.6 but I would expect him to lean over 1 per game. This was all in 26.4mpg mind you. Could be the top fantasy rookie this year, definitely one to watch.

Randy Foye – G – Timberwolves
Foye is likely to begin the season with a similar role to that of Roy – combo guard off the bench. Newly signed Mike James figures to be the starting point guard, and Trenton Hassell likely will begin the season as the starting shooting guard for defensive reasons. Either that or Marko Jaric. Foye is basically a replica of Mike James. He is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body. He is a very potent scorer and has improved his percentages all four years at Villanova. Expect to see a lot of two-PG sets in Minnesota this year with Foye coming off the bench and playing alongside James. Though this will hurt them defensively, this will form a dynamic scoring punch. Add in Ricky Davis and Kevin Garnett and they will put up a lot of points. Foye only averaged 2.2 assists in his Summer League play, and 3.0 in his final college year, so those numbers could be low for someone listed at PG. However his 4.2 rebounds in SL and 5.8 in his final collegiate year are very strong numbers for a point guard fantasy wise and may even out his low assist numbers. He shot a blistering 53% in SL play, 37.5% from three and close to 87% from the charity stripe so he is a good contributor there. 2.2 steals in Summer League also increased his draft stock – however don’t get your hopes up for over 2 steals per game against NBA stars. I’ve seen Foye as one of the first rookies taken in a lot of drafts and as high as the top 120. That may be a little high to begin with though. Look for him anytime after 150 unless it’s a keeper league. A lot of people are screaming Rookie of the Year early on for Foye, but will it translate to Fantasy ROY?

Adam Morrison – SF – Bobcats
There isn’t a basketball fan in the world who knocks Morrison’s uncanny ability to fill it up on any given night. The question is, will he bring anything else to the table fantasy wise? Morrison is not a strong rebounder, and that hurts his value as a forward. He also won’t provide you with a lot of assists. His lack of athleticism and speed will also hinder his defensive stats so don’t look for a lot of steals or blocks here (0.2 and 0.4 in Summer League respectively). So basically Morrison will be drafted for 3 reasons: points, threes and percentages. If that is what you are looking for when you draft him, that is what you will get. Let’s just hope that his defensive shortcomings don’t keep him off the court for long stretches. If they don’t, he could be a top 120 player just based on points and percentages.

Andrea Bargnani – F – Raptors
The Raptors brass and coaching staff have publicly stated they feel no pressure to play Bargnani if he is not ready for the minutes. They feel they can bring him along slowly as he adjusts to the NBA game. This alone has fantasy owners hesitant on drafting him. He posses all the tools needed to be an NBA star and fantasy stud. Strong outside game, great size, good blocking ability: these usually spell fantasy success. Raptor fans are hoping he is their long-term answer at the center position as he is bigger than Chris Bosh. They would definitely cause match up problems. Bargnani though would have to bulk up a bit and learn to defend inside before that happens on a regular basis. Recent comments from training camp had Bargnani exclusively guarding the centers as they hope to make that his primary position. If he gets C-eligibility, his stock will certainly rise. Rumor has it they are steadily working on his inside game as well so that he does not rely on his outside shoot exclusively. This was very evident in his very first Summer League action, as his first attempt was a drive to the basket with a trip to the free throw line. We think he can do better than his 3.8 SL rebounds, hoping to get closer to the 5.5 he put up in Europe last season as he plays closer to the basket defensively. He won’t hurt you in the free throw column and should get you 45% and 35% on his other shooting stats as well. And his 1 block per game in SL should be duplicated throughout the regular season. Look for Andrea around 120-130.

Rudy Gay – SF – Grizzlies
It appeared that on draft night many GMs around the league didn’t see the same all-around game that we Freaks can see, as Rudy slipped way down the draft board to the Rockets. But the Rockets have never been kind to fantasy owners, they’ve got TMac at the 3, and they’re in a win-now approach under JVG. So a trade to the Grizzlies – who have Gasol out for a few months, an injury prone Mike Miller at the 3, and an aging Eddie Jones at the 2 - certainly boosted his stock. To begin the season, he will likely see an increase in his minutes due to Gasol’s foot injury and could perhaps (albeit unlikely) start at small forward. Rudy posses a Josh Smith-like game, however he has a better shooting stroke but won’t get quite as many blocks. Rudy is a potential threat to be a 7-cat player; his main downside being the possibility of high turnovers. He shoots the ball well from inside and out, though only shoots around 73% from the charity stripe. He has very long arms which help him to contribute in the defensive categories as well. If he can put it all together and get rid of the knock on his work ethic, he could be one of the top fantasy players in his prime. This season look for him to be a top-130ish player, but you could probably draft him lower unless it’s a keeper league.

LaMarcus Aldridge – PF - Trailblazers
Unless you are in a keeper league, Aldridge shouldn’t be on your list for this year. He is coming off of off-season surgery and won’t be ready for the season opener. Portland also has a plethora of bigs in Randolph, Lafrentz, Przybilla and Magloire all ahead of him on the depth chart. His longterm positives are rebounding, blocked shots, field goal percentage, and could even help in the steals and turnover categories. But don’t count on any help this season.

Shelden Williams – PF – Hawks
Just because Billy Knight reached to draft him, doesn’t mean you should. With Al Harrington gone, there is a void in the starting power forward slot, but don’t expect it to be filled by this Williams. The likely starting forwards will be Marvin and Josh Smith, with Childress being the backup swingman and Shelden backing up the 4. Some will argue that he will get a lot of playing time because of the Hawks’ weak frontcourt. However the addition of Lorenzen Wright will cut into Shelden’s playing time if he isn’t ready to contribute. Though he dominated at the college level, I wouldn’t expect the same results against NBA caliber big men. Shelden is a little small in NBA standards, but his freakishly long wingspan makes him a very good shot blocker and he will also get you a steal a game in starter’s minutes. A good back to the basket player with good field goal percentages and a very good rebounder, Shelden will have some value this year as a primary backup 4-man. Pre-season rankings have him around 180, but don’t expect his stock to jump too much until the end of the season when Atlanta mails it in and wants to see their young guys play more.

Jorge Garbajosa – F – Raptors
This 29-year old rookie from Spain likes to play outside however will likely see most of his minutes backing up Chris Bosh at the 4. Known as a banger on the defensive end, Jorge will bring rebounding and steals to the table. He knows how to score, the problem is it takes him more shots to do so as he has a history of weak percentages, especially from beyond the arc. And that’s the Euro-arc, shorter than the NBA. He also averaged 2.3 assists in Euroleague play last year, a league known for low assist numbers. His current value is pegged around 175. As the main backup to Bosh, and someone making the transition from Europe to the NBA, I wouldn’t reach to get him higher than that.

Rodney Carney – SF – 76ers
Not an ideal situation for Carney to be placed in if he wants to be a fantasy success out of the gates; however, it’s definitely a situation to keep an eye on. He’s freakishly athletic and has all of the tools to be a 9-cat fantasy player; however, the success of Carney this year likely revolves around his defense. If he can adjust to the speed and size of the NBA game, he’ll be challenging Ashton Korver and Willie Green for that starting spot. If he can’t, he will see minutes as the primary backup to both the shooting guard and small forward spots, therefore possibly seeing 25 minutes a game. Either way, with AI, Webber and Korver on board, he is likely not going to see the ball much to show his scoring touch. He is smart and steady and there is an opening for minutes if the cards go his way. He’s somebody that you’ll want to keep an eye on down the stretch, especially if the Sixers aren’t in the playoff hunt. His current value sits around 190-200 in non-keeper leagues.

Ronnie Brewer – G – Jazz
Brewer sits comfortably at #200 on both the roto and h2h preseason rankings. He has a lot of upside and could see a decent amount of minutes in his rookie campaign thanks in large part to Utah’s lack of shooting guards. However, caution has a name, and that name is Jerry Sloan. The man doesn’t think highly of rookies, and vastly misused Deron Williams last year even though he was the team’s best point guard. In 25 minutes at Summer League, Brewer averaged 16 points on 56% shooting. He had low rebound and assist numbers but his 1.7 steals per game were rather nice. Brewer also has very good ball handling skills so his turnovers should stay low. Keep an eye on him. In small leagues, he could be a nice waiver wire pickup if he gets minutes.

Marcus Williams – PG – Nets
To me, Williams’ role and minutes appeared to be a lock on this Nets team as Jason Kidd’s heir apparent. However the signing of ex-Bull Jay Williams has some thinking Marcus has a lot of competition for the primary backup role. In the NBA today, there isn’t a better point guard to learn from than Kidd – a one-time dominant fantasy player and still a triple-double threat every night. Williams was knocked for being overweight in pre-draft camp, however his Summer League play should have quieted all naysayers. He had 16.6ppg, hitting 10 of 18 three pointers, dished out 9.3 assists, added a steal per game, 3.4 rebounds and shot 84% from the free throw line for good measure. Obviously he won’t be getting 32 minutes a night in the regular season, however the upside is there for Marcus to have strong keeper league value. Last year the Nets played a lot of two point guard sets with Kidd and Jacque Vaughn on the court together. Williams is a better player than Vaughn and the Nets still have no depth so this is still an option to get him minutes. However, it still remains to be seen if he will be the primary backup, so look for him on the waiver wire if he starts seeing consistent bench minutes and contributes.

Tyrus Thomas – F – Bulls
Thomas is a tweener forward; too small to be a power forward, not enough outside game to be a small forward. The Bulls are set at the small forward spot with Nocioni and Deng so he is unlikely to see time there. The Bulls also beefed up their frontcourt this offseason with the signing of Ben Wallace and the trade for P.J. Brown. Don’t forget about Michael Sweetney still in the mix as well. Thomas’ Summer League digits show he is better suited playing inside as he stunk it up from beyond the arc at a clip of 16.7%. He did manage to score 16 and haul down 7 boards, but percentages were weak for a big man across the board. He has some keeper value, as it is yet to be seen whether he will indeed become an exciting hustle player who will bring the defensive stats, or whether he will be a worse version of Stromile Swift. With the Bulls making a charge for the playoffs, we think Tyrus’ immediate value is limited.

Jordan Farmar – PG – Lakers
Farmar will be strictly a waiver-wire player to begin the season. No one expects much of him. But who is going to steal his minutes as primary backup point guard to Smush Parker? Sasha Vujacic? Farmar is better than him. Aaron McKie? Apparently being bought out due to a sore back. Farmar had a decent Summer League – 16 points, 3 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.7 steals, 52% field goals – and could find wide open shots playing alongside Kobe and the Kobettes. However I would wait to see some success before looking for him on the wire. Phil doesn’t like to play rookies too much, and would probably rather have Odom play backup point guard than a rookie. However give him a couple of years and he could be a Chris Duhon-type player but upped to 34 minutes.

J.J. Redick – SG – Magic
Redick figures to be a one dimensional and three-cat player at this point: 3-pointers and percentages. The kid is a lights out shooter. Or at least he was in college. Will he have the same success against NBA defenders, the majority of which are bigger and quicker than he is? It remains to be seen if he will be anything more than Fred Hoidberg. Redick is not someone to put on your list for this season, as he did not make the Freaks top-200 rankings for the preseason. He will only have value in keeper leagues at this point, and even then I wouldn’t reach for the trigger until the later rounds. Might want to let this guy prove himself first. If he shows he can play, and when Grant Hill goes down with an injury, his playing time could see a very large bump leading the masses to the waiver wire.

Rajon Rondo – PG – Celtics
So, Rondo is outplaying Sebastian Telfair in exhibition play, and Delonte West, who was barely holding onto his starting spot coming into camp, is nursing yet another injury. Is there a window of opportunity here? Sure. But it is preseason and if Rondo puts up 4 points, 3 assists and 2 turnovers with no steals and no 3s in his next game off the bench, most of that hype will go away. We’re keeping an eye on him, as his defensive abilities and pass-first approach could make him the future point guard for this team. The keyword there is future. But, based on a few preseason games, we’re not ready to put him ahead of both Delonte and Telfair in the depth charts.

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Nick Obergan is a column writer for RotoFreak.com. He'll be covering this year's rookie class throughout the year, chiming in on their current values and long-term potential in fantasyland. If you'd like to comment on the article, please chime in on the boards.